Jake’s 2015 Oscar Predictions

BRENTWOOD, CA - FEBRUARY 24: Nate Sanders displays the collection of Oscar statuettes that his auction company will sell online to the highest bidder on February 24, 2012 in Brentwood, California. (Photo by Toby Canham/Getty Images)

Today are the Academy Awards, the final awards show in a long and bloated awards season (aren’t they always this bloated?). It all comes down to tonight. The studios have made finalized their Oscar campaigns, the members have voted/received back-door deals for votes, and we have a ceremony that’s been shrouded in controversy for the last month due to the lack of non-white acting nominees. I don’t want to get into the controversy because, well frankly, everyone else has talked about it, and I don’t really add anything new to the category (Straight Outta Compton should’ve gotten more nominations, Creed should’ve been nominated, etc.). What I’m going to do today is predict the winners in all of the major categories, which will be all the acting categories, screenplay, directing, and picture. It should be fun(?) and I hope you enjoy my getting all of the categories wrong.

The first category I’m going to dive into are the Best Original Screenplay categories. The nominees are:


“Bridge of Spies”
“Ex Machina”
“Inside Out”
“Spotlight”
“Straight Outta Compton”

What Should Win: Spotlight

What Will Win: Spotlight

This is a good list of screenplay nominations. All of these screenplays were phenomenal, and they all had spots on my best of 2015 list from a few months back. I’m going with Spotlight not only because it was my favorite film from last year, but it has all the momentum going into the ceremony (at least in this category, I’ll get to the Best Picture category soon).

 

Let’s get to Best Adapted Screenplay. The nominees are:

“The Big Short”
“Brooklyn”
“Carol”
“The Martian”
“Room”

What Will Win: The Big Short

What Should Win: The Big Short

I’ve only seen 3 out of the 5 films nominated in this category, so I can’t say that I’ve seen/enjoyed Brooklyn or Room . I’m picking The Big Short as the screenplay winner because, like Spotlight, it has a lot of momentum going into this ceremony tonight, and Adam McKay’s screenplay was one of the highlights of his equally entertaining look into the 2008 housing crisis. I’d be surprised if there’s an upset in this category.

 

Lets get to the acting categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress. The nominees are:

Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight”
Rooney Mara, “Carol”
Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight”
Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”

Who Will Win: Alicia Vikander

Who Should Win: Rooney Mara

I didn’t see The Danish Girl, but I didn’t really hear anyone who liked it other than for the performances by Eddie Redmayne and Vikander. I’d put my money on her to win the award, but I feel she should’ve also been nominated for her performance as Ava in Ex Machina, one of the best films of the last year. But, its safe to say she’ll be the one who takes home this award tonight.

 

Best Supporting Actor. The nominees are:

Christian Bale, “The Big Short”
Tom Hardy, “The Revenant”
Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”
Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”

Who Should Win: Stallone

Who Will Win: Stallone

I loved Creed, and Stallone’s final(?) performance as the Italian Stallion was one of the best performances I saw from any actor this year. It was a raw, emotional, vulnerable and all around beautiful final performance of Rocky Balboa, not to mention Stallone’s best portrayal of the character yet. I see him winning tonight, and I’d be shocked if the Academy chooses Mark Rylance over Stallone.

 

Best Actress. The nominees are:

Cate Blanchett, “Carol”
Brie Larson, “Room”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”
Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”

Who Will Win: Brie Larson

Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett

This is a category where I’ve seen only one performance, which is Ms. Blanchett’s. I haven’t seen Room yet, and I hear Brie Larson is terrific in the film. I’m pulling for her to win (which she will) just because she’s just a phenomenally talented actress who I’ve grown to admire in the past few years. It’ll be great seeing her win that award tonight, and I look forward to the occasion.

Best Actor…this explanation will be a bit lengthy…the nominees are:

Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”
Matt Damon, “The Martian”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”

Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Who Should Win: Michael Fassbender

I’ve said from the beginning that Fassbender should win the Oscar for his brilliant portrayal of the titular Jobs, but I knew he didn’t stand a chance. Leo will win, even if its one of the weaker performances in his recent career. Sure, it was impressive to see Leo crawl and grunt and eat bison liver for nearly 3 hours, but I didn’t really have much of an emotional connection with Leo or anyone around him throughout the whole film. The only reason he’ll get this award is because he hasn’t gotten one yet, and many feel it’s finally his time (he’s not dying or old, he’s a middle-aged man, but whatever). I just hope that DiCaprio doesn’t spend the rest of his career making mediocre schlock thanks to his Oscar win.

 

Let’s get to Best Director. The nominees are:

Adam McKay, “The Big Short”
George Miller, “Mad Max: Fury Road”
Alejandro González Iñárritu, “The Revenant”
Lenny Abrahamson, “Room”
Tom McCarthy, “Spotlight”

Who Will Win: Alejandro Inarritu

Who Should Win: George Miller

I continue to be baffled by the love that The Revenant is getting. I could understand Inarritu’s Birdman, which won Best Director and Picture last year, being what it was because it was a wholly unique and kind of brilliant movie. There wasn’t anything brilliant about The Revenant, other than the fact that it took them a long time to make it because the director is a dick, and Leo ate bison liver. Inarritu will win this award, since he’s won the Golden Globe, DGA and BAFTA for his work, but its a bittersweet victory due to the director’s behavior on set. I’d love to see George Miller get the upset for his much more impressive work directing Fury Road, which is a masterpiece in terms of technicality and directing. Oh well…

Now, onto Best Picture. The nominees are:

“The Big Short”
“Bridge of Spies”
“Brooklyn”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Room”
“Spotlight”

What Will Win: The Big Short

What Should Win: Spotlight

The Big Short won the PGA Award, as well as the WGA award for screenplay. With that kind of momentum, its safe to assume that The Big Short will get the big award (no pun intended) tonight. It’s going to be awesome since Adam McKay, who produced, directed and starred in the film, is going to potentially win two Oscars tonight. The same dude who made Boats ‘n’ Hoes is going to win two Oscars. That’s pretty awesome. Yes, I’d love to see Spotlight win since it was my favorite film of last year, but it doesn’t have the type of momentum that The Big Short does. Even though The Revenant won Best Picture at the Globes and BAFTA’s, its not going to win (remember, Boyhood won both those awards and it didn’t win Best Picture at the Oscars because Birdman won the PGA).

 

I hope you enjoyed by Oscar predictions. What are yours? I’d love to hear what you have to say in the comments.

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One thought on “Jake’s 2015 Oscar Predictions

  1. I agree with you about DiCaprio. Everyone expects him to win his Oscar, and it is a fair chance that he would, but I don’t see why he should. There is a difference between enduring physical hardship and great acting, and I think DiCaprio still hasn’t gotten out of his acting comfort zone. In terms of acting, DiCaprio still shows the same acting level he did in his previous film. In terms of hardship endured, well…give him a Boy Scout Award or something like this then, not an Academy one.

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